Focus on the House of Representatives

According to a November 15 Quinnipiac University poll, which sampled 1,743 U.S. adults, 52% of voters — including 72% of independents — want different candidates to enter the race for President in 2024.

The No Labels Group has announced they are attempting to get on all state ballots as an alternative to the repeat contest between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.  The group has been courting former Republican Governor Larry Hogan of Maryland and U.S. Senator Joe Manchin, a conservative Democrat from West Virginia who recently announced he will not seek re-election to the Senate.

A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who launched an independent presidential bid in October, could capture 20% or more of the votes in a three-way contest with Biden and Trump.  Initially, the Democratic Party expressed concerns that a Kennedy bid would draw votes from President Biden. The Reuters/Ipsos poll and others have shown Kennedy pulling equally from Republicans and Democrats in a three-way race.

Cornel West, a philosopher and Black social leader, is also running as an independent. Jill Stein recently announced that she will once again run for the White House as a Green candidate. Both West and Stein are expected to receive an immaterial share of the vote.  Both are struggling to get on state ballots.

The Quinnipiac University poll included a hypothetical three-person general election between Biden, Trump, and an Independent candidate.  It also incorporated a five-person contest – adding West and Stein to the mix of candidates.  In neither of the hypothetical elections did a single candidate receive a majority of the popular vote.  This prompted me to consider how the winner would be selected.

If we agree that no single candidate receives a majority of the votes of the Electoral College, then the selection process moves to the House of Representatives.  Currently, the Republicans hold a 222 – 213 advantage.  Following the 2024 election, I see a scenario where the Democrats flip the House with a mere 218 – 217 majority.  But that is a moot point because each state gets a single vote when the vote to select the new President is conducted.

Currently, there are twenty-six states where the number of Republicans in the delegation exceeds the number of Democrats and Independents.  There are twenty-two states where the number of Democrats in the delegation exceeds the number of Republicans and Independents.  An equal number of Democrats and Republicans represent two states.

The following table details the current distribution of Representatives and a hypothetical allotment following the 2024 election.  Yes, the Democrats could regain control of the House. However, the 26-22-2 ratio remains in favor of the Republicans.

To illustrate the futility that the Independent Party candidate faces, let us assume the following results of the 2024 General election.

What will happen when the election moves to the House?  What is the process for each delegation to follow to determine for which candidate they will vote?  What if more than two states have an equal number of Rs and Ds in the delegation?  As it currently stands, if all twenty-six “Republican” states vote for their party’s candidate, our President will be elected having received the smallest percentage of the popular vote and the Electoral College allocation. 

I suggest that the Republican National Committee and the Democratic National Committee may want to focus a large portion of their resources on those House races where the flip of one or two seats could be the major factor in determining who sleeps in the White House for the next four years.  

What will happen when the election moves to the House?  What is the process  that each delegation   will follow to determine for which candidate they will vote?

Currently, there are two states – Minnesota and North Carolina – which have an equal number of Rs and Ds in their delegations.      There are an additional twelve states – Colorado, Kansas, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, Oregon, Rhode Island, and West Virginia – where a net gain or loss of one seat would result in a balanced delegation.  Can you imagine the chaos this will cause.  As it currently stands, if all twenty-six “Republican” states vote for their party’s candidate, our President will be elected having received the smallest percentage of the popular vote and the Electoral College allocation.

I suggest that the Republican National Committee and the Democratic National Committee may want to focus a large portion of their resources on those House races where the flip of one or two seats could be the major factor in determining who sleeps in the White House for the next four years.

K. Michael Young is President of Strategic Business Transformation Resources, LLC. He brings over 35 years of experience to clients in the areas of Lean Six Sigma deployment, operations management, risk management, program development and training in the financial services and healthcare sectors, including provider, payor, pharmaceutical and medical device companies.

Mr. Young is a Certified Lean Six Sigma Master Black Belt.  Michael brings significant knowledge and skills in the design, development and delivery of training programs and materials in the areas of Lean Six Sigma, program management, project team management, facilitation skills, organizational change management, and Enterprise Risk Management (ERM).  His most recent article, “Six Sigma and Enterprise Risk Management”, has been published on the iSixSigma website.