Would Trump, the most ‘European’ American President, Defend Slovenia?
Former President Trump and JD Vance both share European heritage but seem to have little affinity for the continent. They are concerned with shaming ’ free riders’ who want American protection but won’t pay for it. Yet Europe matters to U.S. security and its prosperity. A future Trump presidency needs to recognize that the United States needs Europe as much as Europe needs America. This is not mere sentiment but a real reflection of shared interests.
In the June 27 presidential debate, President Trump defended his Ukraine-Russia policy by insisting that Ukraine is a problem for Europe. There is an ‘ocean between us,’ so why can’t Europe look after itself? The divide between Republican and Democratic candidates is clear. We may assume that Kamala Harris will confirm her commitment to the alliance with NATO and the causes that matter to Europe.
Around 190 million out of 340 million Americans claim some European heritage, far more than from any other continent. Trump’s own family is the most European of all U.S. presidents of the last 100 hundred years. Donald Trump’s paternal grandparents were born in Bavaria, Germany. His mother, Mary Anne MacLeod, was an immigrant from the Scottish islands and was only naturalized as an American five years before he was born. His first wife, Ivana, had Czech and Austrian nationality and, indeed, skied for Czechoslovakia. Of his children, Donald Junior speaks fluent Czech. Melania Trump is a Slovenian citizen. And his son Barron is also reportedly fluent in Slovenian. Many Americans who will vote in November care about what matters to Europe.
Trump maintains that Europe should help Ukraine more because they are closer to the site of the Russian invasion. And if the NATO countries can’t meet the 2% of GDP target set by NATO under the Obama administration at the 2014 Wales summit, then Trump says, ‘ Putin can do whatever the hell he wants’ with the non-compliers. The Trump family countries of the UK, Germany, and Czechia now exceed the 2% guideline. However, as of July 2024, Trump would decline defending Slovenia, which, according to NATO figures, is next to the bottom of the Defense spenders at 1.29% of the GDP. And NATO countries might well remind Trump that all 28 of them sent military personnel and equipment to Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks on the United States. Including Montenegro and Slovenia. No free riders at that time.
U.S. interests in Europe are clear. The EU and UK collectively are the biggest markets for American exports and investment, far outstripping China, Mexico, and Canada if Europe were plunged into conflict with Russia. With most of Ukraine swallowed and the Baltic and even Balkan states threatened by Putin with a kinetic or cyber attack, the U.S. capacity to sell in Europe would be severely diminished. Many who will vote for Trump in November will be struggling to retain their jobs if Ukraine falls and Europe becomes mired in conflict. Beyond this, Trump is now threatening the EU with import tariffs of 10%, and the EU is promising to retaliate strongly.
Trump himself has business interests in many countries overseas. These include golf courses and hotels in Scotland and Ireland. However, there are few in Europe overall – even in Hungary. The focus of Trump’s business interests is now on Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Middle East. Trump visited Saudi Arabia as his first overseas destination during his Presidency. Now, his and his family’s business interests are inextricably tied to the Kingdom. A Saudi-financed golf, apartment, and hotel development in Oman is underway. The Saudi-financed LIV golf tournaments use Trump’s courses. Recently, a deal has been announced for a luxury Trump Tower in Jeddah to be developed with Dar Global of Saudi Arabia. In addition, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner’s private equity firm Affinity Partners would not exist without Saudi, UAE, and Qatari money. The Saudis alone have given $2 billion. The Trump family has made its investment allegiances clear.
Trump’s foreign policy preferences are often determined by personalities rather than states. He likes Victor Orban, whom he calls a ‘powerful and tough. leader”. He has called Putin a ‘genius’. He writes ‘love letters’ to Kin Jun UN. He also regards Muhammed Bin Salman as an ‘old friend.’ But In Europe, no one he refers to with any esteem. Apart from Victor Orban, neither does Vance. After this month’s Labor party victory in the UK, Vance said the UK was now an ‘Islamist nuclear power”. Not all republican leaders agree with Trump on Ukraine. Mike Johnson has called Putin ‘a vicious dictator.’
How, then, should Europe plead its case to a newly elected Trump? Many European leaders – from the UK, France, and Germany – sent messages to Trump after the failed assassination attempt. So did Zelensky – the most experienced of all European politicians in dealing with Trump. “I appreciate President Zelensky for reaching out,” said Trump’. This is indeed smart diplomacy by Ukraine and came days after Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, endorsed the Trump-Vance ticket. Putin must now be concerned that Trump is known to want the accolade of ‘peacemaker’ – perhaps a Nobel prize? He saw the Abraham Accords as part of his Middle East ‘Vision for Peace”. But these accords ignored the Palestine issue and emboldened Iran and Hamas. Zelensky perhaps senses that there could be a new era of relations with Trump. The search for Hunter Biden’s supposed corruption in Ukraine is now irrelevant, so he no longer owes Trump a favor.
If Trump becomes president, many European leaders already know how to deal with him. Call him to congratulate him. Encourage him to be a peacemaker and the one who counts in relations with Europe. Then, Trump will see that Europe is important to both him and the United States. Forget about the ocean. Both share common interests, including business and jobs. There are only 55 miles of ocean between Alaska and Russia, and an ICBM from Western Russia or Iran only takes 30 minutes to reach the East Coast of the United States. Europe and Slovenia, in particular, have some good cards to play. After a Trump victory, they should start playing them.
Paul Webster Hare was a British diplomat for 30 years and the British ambassador to Cuba from 2001-04. He is currently a Master Lecturer in international relations at the Frederick S Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University.
