Nothing scares candidates and their campaign teams more than the thought that some unexpected crisis will occur in the last few weeks or days before the election. How will that event affect the outcome? What can they do to anticipate the unexpected? What can they do to be ready?
The two major presidential campaigns usually have teams of experts secretly meeting to anticipate crises and prepare for them. In this series, we imagine the events those teams could be planning about and how the staff may be “inoculating” their candidates.
Crisis #2: Power Blackout from Cyber Attack
The Scenario: In August, temperatures reach triple digits in a swath of the nation, including Los Angeles, Tucson, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Houston, Dallas, New Orleans, Tulsa, and Oklahoma City. Nighttime cooling does not drop the temperature below 80f. The heat wave is in its third week when a massive power blackout spreads quickly across the entire Western Interconnect (everything west of the Mississippi except Texas), including Seattle, Salt Lake City, and the San Francisco Bay Area.
On day two of the outage, reports spread online that the cause of the blackout may not have been the strain caused by the heat wave. Southern California Edison issued a statement that several of its generators and numerous transformers sustained damage from what it characterizes as “activity consistent with a malicious cyber attack by a sophisticated state actor, overcoming our extensive cyber defenses.” Repair or replacement of the damaged equipment could take “several weeks or longer.” Energy Secretary Granholm on a conference call with utility executives, governors, and mayors proposes partial restoration of power invoking “scheduled rolling brown outs and black outs” until new equipment can be installed.
Cities are opening “cooling centers” powered by National Guard mobile generators. Hospitals are canceling elective surgeries and sending patients home. Gas stations in many areas cannot pump fuel. Air travel is disrupted, and some airports are closed.
On day two of the outage, Washington Post reporters David Ignatius and Ellen Nakashima reported that four sources in the Intelligence Community revealed that the blackout was likely caused by a Russian cyber attack in retaliation for the US permitting Ukraine to strike targets on Russian territory. While attribution of the hack is proving difficult, before the blackout, a CIA source reported that such an attack might be imminent. White House spokesman Admiral John Kirby responds that the President has canceled all campaign travel and is meeting with the NSC Principals.
Biden response: If the preponderance of the intelligence reporting and analysis indicates this is a Russian hack against the grid, Biden should deliver a tough prime-time address warning Putin to back off, saying that the US would be responding and that it would be in Putin’s interest not to retaliate to our response. The White House should then leak that the President approved a series of overt and covert responses, seizing Russian assets and providing Ukraine with more weapons directly from DOD’s inventory. He should fly to Brussels for an emergency meeting of NATO, invoking Article V (mutual defense) and emphasizing the value of allies.
Then, the US should conduct a significant cyber attack on Russian infrastructure, including its power grid, pipelines, and rail system. Biden should reconvene Congress (which was on recess) to obtain a joint resolution condemning Russia, seeking additional emergency funding to rebuild the Western grid as quickly as possible, and buying transformers and generators.
Biden should stress the theme that the US and NATO must stand up to Putin’s aggression, or worse crises could come. He and his surrogates should say that this attack by Russia proves what Biden had said all along, that Putin is a thug and not one to which any US president should kow-tow (as Trump had, they imply). “Putin only understands strength.” Some down-ballot Democrats should say, “A vote for Trump is a vote for Putin.”
Inoculating Biden: Biden should now address Putin’s threats to respond to Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil, again reminding Russia of US willingness to defend “every inch” of NATO territory. He should add, “including at sea, in space, and cyberspace.”
Biden should task FEMA, DoD, DOE, HHS, and Homeland to develop, dust off, or improve contingency plans for responding to widespread power blackouts. He should give a speech stressing how his Infrastructure Program will strengthen the power grids to meet growing needs such as AI and TVs, and he should announce a new push for distributed, local power generation and small modular nuclear reactors. He should visit an on-site power generation facility from a natural gas facility.
Trump’s response: Trump should continue his line that the war between Ukraine and Russia would end within days of him becoming president. Consistent with that theme, he should criticize Biden for permitting Ukraine to engage in provocations that brought on the attack on the US power grid. He should say the attack would never have happened if he were president. Visiting a Rocky Mountain city, he should go to a cooling center and criticize Washington’s slow response to the crisis. He should call for rebuilding the grid at “warp speed,” which only he can do.
Trump should criticize Biden for not doing enough to defend America’s cyberspace, noting that he would increase defense spending, complete the wall on the Mexican border, and “build a virtual wall in cyberspace” in order to “Make America Safe Again.”
Inoculating Trump: Trump should criticize Biden for permitting Ukraine to escalate the war with Russia and talk more about his ability to end the war. He should stress how his personal relations with Putin will help restore good relations between the superpowers so that the US does not get involved in needless foreign wars.
Richard Clarke had roles in the Defense Department, State Department (Assistant Secretary), and White House National Security Council (for three presidents) for thirty years. He then was Chairman of the Middle East Institute for ten years.
