Election Season Surprises
Nothing scares candidates and their campaign teams more than the thought that some unexpected crisis will occur in the last few weeks or days before the election. How will that event affect the outcome? What can they do to anticipate the unexpected? What can they do to be ready?
The two major presidential campaigns usually have teams of experts secretly meeting to anticipate crises and prepare for them. In this series, we imagine the events those teams could be planning about and how the staff may be “inoculating” their candidates.
Crisis #4: Korea
The Scenario: In the preceding ten months, Kim Jung Un, the dictator of North Korea (DPRK), announced that he had given up on peaceful reunification with South Korea (ROK). He modified the North Korean constitution to label South Korea as “the principal enemy.” On his orders, the border facility where the two nations met was detonated. The DPRK stopped answering the conflict resolution communications lines between the two sides.
North Korea launched hundreds of excrement-filled packages on balloons across the border. The always-extreme rhetoric of the North’s propaganda machine became notably more hostile. Two of America’s leading North Korea watchers, Sig Heckler and Robert Carlin, wrote that it appeared Kim had decided to go to war in the near future.
In June, squads of North Korean troops wandered across the Demilitarized Zone into South Korea several times, were warned off by South Korean gunfire, and retreated. As part of a combined forces exercise with the ROK, the US flew a B-1 bomber to Korea and, in an unprecedented move, dropped a full bomb-bay load of live ammunition on a test range target.
Later in the month, Vladimir Putin was given a hero’s welcome in Pyongyang. Russia and North Korea pledged cooperation without limits and a mutual security treaty. The North was already supplying Russia with thousands of artillery rounds and missiles. Kim, in turn, sought help with improving his missiles that could reach the United States, modern fighter aircraft, and satellite technology.
On September 9, 2024, Kim Jung Un planned a provocative show of force. His prized submarine 841, Hero Kim Kun Ok, capable of being armed with four nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles and six cruise missiles, would conduct a surprise, submerged test launch of two KN-11 ballistic missiles from the waters of Gyeoongi-do Bay across the DMZ over Japan, and into the Pacific. To maintain surprise, no DPRK surface ships or aircraft were nearby.
As the first missile rose above Korea, it was detected by US, South Korean, and Japanese radars. Acting on new standing orders from the Prime Minister to stop military missiles from overflying the country, the Japan Self Defense Force launched SM-3 missiles from the destroyer Haguro, underway off the east coast of Korea. One of the interceptors exploded near the KN-11, destroying it and dropping debris on Japan’s west coast.
The second KN-11 exploded in its launch tube, causing a fire. The submarine surfaced, and the flames spread aboard the Hero Kim Kun Uk, Submarine 841. Having lost power, the sub drifted across the international boundary toward the South Korean island of Daeyongpyeong-do. Alerted by intelligence that a test launch would take place in the area, ROK Coast Guard and Navy vessels were in the area. They rescued North Korean sailors and attempted to dose the fire but pulled back, fearing explosions, which then took place, causing the submarine to sink in South Korean waters.
North Korean warships and combat aircraft scrambled to the area, some crossing the borderline. South Korean forces, air and naval, fired warning shots. After tense moments, the North’s forces withdrew, awaiting orders.
Humiliated, Kim Jung Un claimed that the South had attacked and destroyed his submarine. He demanded the submarine and the sailors be returned. Then, he ordered a general mobilization and put all North Korean forces on war footing.
Biden response: Biden should return to the White House, canceling campaign events. He should consult urgently with ROK President Yoon Suk Yeoh and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. There should be a call for North Korea to reverse its military build-up. Biden should reach out to Chinese President Xi, seeking a joint appeal to reduce tensions. Simultaneously, Biden should publicly reaffirm our treaty commitment to the ROK, order Army, Navy, and Air Force reinforcements to Korea and Japan, and dispatch Vice President Harris and Defense Secretary Austin to Seoul.
Inoculating Biden: Following Putin’s visit to the DPRK, Biden should consult via a secure video conference with President Yoon Suk Yeoh, publicizing the event and reaffirming our security commitment.
Trump’s response: Trump should emphasize that he is the only US president who has ever known a North Korean leader, having met with Kim three times. He should contend that tension like this would never have happened if he were president. He should try to place a call to Kim, promising that he will improve relations when he is president, but warning him not to let events get out of control before then.
Inoculating Trump: During one of his campaign rallies, Trump noted that tensions are rising on the Korean Peninsula and claimed that only he understands how to handle Kim. He should accuse Biden of ignoring Korea.
Bottom Line: If Biden acts decisively and the crisis passes, the event may reinforce his image as a steady hand in national security. If Trump overplays his hand by calling Kim, he may look like he is interfering in a crisis for his own political benefit.
Richard Clarke had roles in the Defense Department, State Department (Assistant Secretary), and White House National Security Council (for three presidents) for thirty years. He then was Chairman of the Middle East Institute for ten years.
