Most Americans don’t think about my home state of Iowa much except every fourth January when the caucuses are upon us. For a few weeks, we become very interesting. The Iowa caucus has been an important early contest in the presidential nominating process since the parties moved to a primary/caucus system in the early 70s. It has become part of our state’s political culture. You have a good chance of running into a candidate at some point, and despite the fact that caucusing requires some effort, our turnout is quite high.
The process of caucusing has a strong democracy in action feel to it. Rather than stepping into a booth and filling out a ballot, you meet with your neighbors in a school cafeteria, community center, church basement, etc. Representatives from each candidate will give speeches. You might vote for party leadership. Republicans and Democrats utilize different procedures at the caucus. For Republicans, it is a secret ballot. Democrats are more complicated and interesting. You physically stand with supporters of your candidate, so it is public.
After the first round, any candidate who fails to reach 15% of the vote is out, and their supporters can choose from among those who are left. The supporters of the remaining candidates will then try to persuade these voters to come over to their side. In 2016, I was observing a Democratic precinct, and Martin O’Malley had four supporters, all from the same family. The Sanders and Clinton camps spent ten minutes trying to persuade them to come over (in the end, they split 2-2).
The importance of the Iowa caucuses is more symbolic than practical. We don’t have that many delegates at stake, and the process is convoluted (your precinct caucus picks delegates to a county convention, which then picks delegates to the state convention, which then picks the candidate). But the results here are important for shaping the narrative. Winning, or even doing better than expected, can get voters’ attention in other states, the media, and donors. Losing, or even doing worse than expected, can mark the end of your campaign. We aren’t always good at picking winners, but we are pretty good at winnowing the field.
Apart from the status of being early, Iowa also offers some advantages to candidates. Potential candidates start visiting Iowa just weeks after the previous election, trying to win over influential within the parties. It is relatively cheap and easy to campaign here. Our advertising is inexpensive, and there are several events and organizations you can address. Also, eating a corn dog at the fair is guaranteed to get you on the news.
I’ve seen campaigns that were a candidate, a pair of staffers, and a rental car hit all 99 counties and do better than you would expect. In the last month, within two miles of my house in Waterloo, Trump held a rally, DeSantis has set up shop at a local barbecue place twice, and Haley has done a couple of events. Most of the action and votes may be in the Des Moines Metro area, but candidates do make a point of getting out into the rest of the state, even into small rural towns.
2024 is a different dynamic than the last two caucuses. In ’16, there were about 15 Republicans campaigning, and in ’20, the Democrats had about the same. With an incumbent and a former incumbent on the ticket, the fields are much smaller. The Democrats aren’t campaigning at all. The active Republican field is much smaller this time out. Trump, DeSantis, Haley, and Ramaswamy are all actively campaigning here and all over the airwaves. Trump is far and away the favorite, with DeSantis and Haley locked in a tight race for second place. Their messaging is mostly similar as is typical when the candidates are all from one party, with all of them focusing attacks on Biden on border security.
Beyond that, Haley is largely focusing on foreign policy, especially China, DeSantis is focusing on his social-conservative track record, and Trump is attacking both of them, highlighting his economic performance as president. DeSantis has picked up several high-profile endorsements from Governor Reynolds and the Iowa Family Leader (an influential conservative group), but that hasn’t really helped him break out. Barring a surprise, they are both running for second place, perhaps with an eye toward raising their profile for 2028.
Soon, the caucuses will be over, and the candidates will move on. We won’t see campaign ads until after Labor Day, and most of the country will return to not thinking of us (or confusing us with Idaho. They’re the one with potatoes; we’re the one with pigs). But we will have played our part in a longstanding tradition. And by February 2025, candidates will start cropping up again, laying the groundwork for next time.
Justin Holmes is an Associate Professor at the University of Northern Iowa, where he has taught since 2008. His teaching and research focuses on Campaigns and Elections, Voter Behavior, Political Communication, and Political Psychology. He also coordinates a voter registration and get out the vote efforts on campus. He lives in Waterloo, in the northeast part of Iowa.
