Israel’s Upcoming Invasion of Lebanon Will Affect America’s Election

Israel’s leadership plans to invade Lebanon soon in a major ground incursion to sweep Hizballah out of the area south of the Litani River, or at least that is what all the indicators are showing.

• The elite 98th Division is now on the road from Gaza to the Lebanon border.
• Defense Minister Galant told troops yesterday that the focus of the war is now moving north.
• The Israeli Armed Forces Chief of Staff said this week that he approved “offensive and defensive” war plans for Lebanon.
• Opinion polls show widespread support in Israel for a major operation against Hizballah in Lebanon.
• The Israeli Cabinet is under pressure from tens of thousands of Israelis who were evacuated from the north of the country earlier in the year but were promised that they could return home when the school year starts. It started last week, and they are still not home.
• Netanyahu shows no sign of wanting a deal with Hamas in Gaza, but he is under increasing pressure to get an agreement to return the Israeli hostages who are still alive. A war with Hizballah in Lebanon would divert public attention from the hostages and would make it highly unlikely that Hamas would make a deal.
• Israel has been engaged in a series of covert actions that are likely to both provoke Hizballah into attacking and to diminish their leadership’s capacity when war comes. The exploding electronics is the latest in this series of attacks.
• Israel engaged in significant air strikes into southern Lebanon today, possibly designed to prepare the battlefield for an incursion.

Suppose I am right, and this Israeli ground war into Lebanon is a major sweep. In that case, it will result in a missile and rocket barrage from Hizballah into Israel, possibly saturating Israeli defenses. In return, Israelis will bomb Lebanon well north of the Litani.

In Iran, the militant advisors to the Supreme Leader have been disappointed at his restrain toward Israel in light of Tel Aviv’s provocations over the last several months. That restraint may give way if there is a ground war in Lebanon. Iran could engage in a large-scale missile attack on Israel, which would draw the US into the fighting.

The US would initially engage in defensive operations to help shoot down Hizballah and Iranian missiles (and probably more from the Houthis in Yemen), but Israel may ask the US to hit the Iranian missile launch locations.

All of this could happen while voting is underway in the US Presidential election. It is unlikely to help Kamal Harris, who has been trying to walk a fine line of appealing to both pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian voters, notably in the key swing state of Michigan. Netanyahu knows that, of course, and may see any negative damage done to Harris as a plus since his preference for Trump is thinly veiled.

Biden, whose patience with Netanyahu has worn out, will nonetheless come to Israel’s defense if missiles and rockets are reigning down on Tel Aviv. Even if Biden thinks Netanyahu has provoked the wider war, the US President will have little choice but to help prosecute that war by defending Israel militarily; at the same time, Biden and his national security team would be trying to mediate a quick ceasefire. US diplomacy will unlikely succeed in stopping the fighting, however, until the Israeli Army is on the banks of the Litani River. Getting there will take some time, and during that time, there will be thousands more war dead and wounded, both military and civilian, both Israeli and Arab. Harris will try to ensure her campaign is not one of those victims.